On Prices/Values

Economics, rather Political Economy attempted at providing a coherent theory of value. Economists such as Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Karl Marx, etc are associated with a ‘theory of value’. Currently, in economics, ‘value’ is not discussed in courses of relevance. However, students are exposed to value theories such as labour commanded, labour embodied and so on.

This post is the second in the series of posts ‘On Prices’. This posts attempts at clarifying concepts such as values, prices and costs of production. Note that all prices which are mentioned in economics textbooks (microeconomics, introductory economics, principles of economics, etc) pertain to relative prices or long-run prices. That is, they do not talk about market prices. The reason for this is because it is assumed/believed that market prices tend to fluctuate or hover around these relative prices. In other words, given a particular technology, these relative prices, in some sense, reflect the interrelationships in the economy. Hence, these natural/normal proces are studied in order to understand the workings of a capitalist economy.

Let me start with what is usually taught in various economics and management institutes across the world and even in higher secondary schools. Prices are determined by the interaction of supply and demand. This implies that an excess dmand leads to a price hike. Let us look at an example: Suppose I go to a toy shop and ask for a Meccano set and immediately, another customer asks for the same set. But, the shop has only one Meccano set. Will the price of the Meccano set increase’ Is such an explanation intuitive or common sensical’ This example talks of an isolated case.

Economics is interested in the formation of a spectrum of prices at the level of the economy. Interestingly, macroeconomics has nothing to offer on price formation. Often, or rather everywhere in the world, economics is taught as microeconomics and macroeconomics. The interdependence and interrelationship present in any economy is inadequately addressed. The closest one comes is probably through the ‘circular flow’ diagram which highlights the role of the firm as well as the households. In this diagram, the complex and strutural interdependence is oversimplified to that of a 2-way interaction between the firm and household via labour market, capital market, etc and the state is shown to play the role of a facilitator. The interrelated production structures goes unnoticed or is seldom mentioned. Why is this important’

How can prices be determined’ (The dominant factor will be mentioned.)

1) Demand & Supply – The prices which are determined in this way are the prices of vegetables and fish, prices of shares in the stock markets, price of real estate, etc. In some sense, these prices can be said to be supply determined. For, these commodities are more often subject to variations in supply than in demand.

2)Costs of Production – An alternative view which is present in the literature is that the prices of commodities are prices according to the prices paid to the means of production as well as adding a certain percentage as profit. According to Kalecki, the percentage depends on the monopoly power of the firm. What if the firm’s final product is an input for another firm’ Will this affect the price of the product’ This aspect is often forgotten in economics.

This forgetfulness is strongly associated to the lack of importance mainstream and even some heterodox economic theories gives to interrelationships in the production structures in an economy. To have a glimpse into this, one needs only to look at an Input-Output table.

If we assume (correctly) that production structures in a capitalist economy are interrelated then we can conceptually distinguish goods/services into – Basics and Non-Basics. [Sraffa 1960] Basic goods are those goods which directly or indirectly enter into the production of every commodity in the economy including its own. An obvious example would be foodgrains because they are needed for labourers and labour is required in all activities. And a tax on a basic good will have cascading effects on the prices of all the goods in the economy.

I shall quote Sraffa to point out the significance of accepting and studying interdependence.

The exchange-ratio (or relative prices) of non-basics is “merely a reflection of what must be paid for means of production, labour and profits in order to produce them – there is no mutual dependence.” [p 8, Sraffa 1960]

“But for a basic product there is another aspect to be considered. Its exchange-ratio depends as much on the use that is made of it ….” [pp 8-9, Sraffa 1960]

It is because of these issues that Sraffa uses values/prices than costs. Also, Sraffa knew that in an economy, “costs of production cannot be measured independently of, and prior to, the determination of the prices of products.” [p 9, Sraffa 1960] To conclude, dan we therefore think that Sraffa’s analysis is similar to the neoclassical analysis of price using demand and supply’

In brackets, Sraffa writes “one might be tempted, but it would be misleading, to say that ‘it depends as much on the Deamnd side as on the Supply side.'” [p 9, Sraffa 1960]

References

1) Kalecki, Michal (1971), Costs and Prices, in Selected Essays on the Dynamics of the Capitalist Economy 1933-1970, Cambridge University Press, pp. 43-61.
2) Sraffa, Piero (1960), Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities, Cambridge University Press.

Inflation: Theory vs Reality

The shift of focus from employment generation to inflation targeting seem to have taken place during the period India was being liberalised. Inflation, however, is a concern to the populace of any nation where wages are not indexed to inflation. In India, inflation poses problems as a rise in prices reduces the real wages and hence their purchasing power. Life, itself, can become difficult.

This post briefly tries to clarify how inflation is conceptualised in economics (neoclassical). Initially, it needs to be pointed out that neoclassical economics analyses equilibrium positions and differences between them – commonly termed as comparative statics. Another significant issue is that, in neoclassical demand and supply, the analysis is entirely carried out in logical time. Now, let us take a look at how prices are formed in equilibrium. In equilibrium, it is required that total demand of a commodity equals its total supply. And, if demand is more than the supply, prices are caused to rise, in order to restore equilibrium. Surprisingly, it is this insight that forms the basis of the current theory of inflation, which is mentioned in the media and talked about by economists.

Thinking through this ‘insight’, a few points come to my mind. First, an economy is never in a state of equilibrium. And neoclassical theory does not have the necessary tools to understand disequilibrium. Though, neoclassical theory can point out the characteristics of disequilibrium positions vis-a-vis equilibrium position. I doubt whether this is adequate. Secondly, prices in an economy does not rise, just because demand increases. Such a behaviour is commonly seen in markets for vegetables, fruits, meat, etc. It seems absurd to posit that prices of manufactured commodities will move according to changes in demand.

This much said, let us examine the impact of money supply on prices in an economy. Is there a relation between money supply and prices’ The first question which needs to be answered is how are prices formed. According to neoclassical economics, when demand rises, it implies that money supply in the economy has risen compared to the equilibrium state of affairs. The quantity theory of money seems to corroborate the hypothesis that money supply and prices are directly related. But what if they are not’ Wouldn’t the policies fail’

It is dangerous to build flimsy theories; for, policies draw arguments from these theories. For instance, the central bank tries to reduce money supply during inflationary conditions by raising the interest rates (indirectly) or through open market operations. How far are they effective’ Or, is inflation just a temporary phenomenon’ It needs to be mentioned that cases of hyperinflation is significantly different as they are strongly correlated with the breakdown of institutions.

This post ends by asking whether an increased rate of interest leads to decreased money supply’ Or whether an increased rate of interest causes prices to rise because the cost of borrowing increases’ Also, high interest rates attract capital from abroad. Very often, causes of inflation are not properly identified, which makes policy construction very difficult.

On Inflation Targeting

The rate of Inflation is of great concern to the Central Bank of a country as well as to its Government.

This concern of the authorities is what makes ‘inflation targeting’ important. But should it be the only concern’

What is ‘Inflation targeting”

Inflation targeting is a framework for operating monetary policy. The first authority to formulate it was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in the early 1990s. It is undertaken by the monetary authorities and it tries to keep the price stable without adversely affecting output and employment. [Khatkhate 2006]

On Phillips curve

The Phillips curve represents the relationship between the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate. Although several people had made similar observations before him, A. W. H. Phillips published a study in 1958 that represented a milestone in the development of macroeconomics. Phillips discovered that there was a consistent inverse, or negative, relationship between the rate of wage inflation and the rate of unemployment in the United Kingdom from 1861 to 1957. When unemployment was high, wages increased slowly; when unemployment was low, wages rose rapidly. [Hoover]

Inflation targeting has gained a lot of importance, mainly owing to the downward slope of the Phillips curve.

On NAIRU

NAIRU or Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment was introduced by Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps during the 1970s.

NAIRU is a steady state unemployment rate above which inflation would fall and below which inflation would rise.

The natural rate of unemployment is a key concept in modern macroeconomics. Its use originated with Milton Friedman’s 1968 Presidential Address to the American Economic Association in which he argued that there is no long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment: As the economy adjusts to any average rate of inflation, unemployment returns to its “natural” rate. Higher inflation brings no benefit in terms of lower average unemployment, nor does lower inflation involve any cost in terms of higher average unemployment. A second important unemployment rate is the “Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment,” or NAIRU. This is the unemployment rate consistent with maintaining stable inflation. According to the standard macroeconomic theory enshrined in most undergraduate textbooks, inflation will tend to rise if the unemployment rate falls below the natural rate. Conversely, when the unemployment rate rises above the natural rate, inflation tends to fall. Thus, the natural rate and the NAIRU are often viewed as two names for the same thing, providing an important benchmark for gauging the state of the business cycle, the outlook for future inflation, and the appropriate stance of monetary policy. [FRBSF Economic Letter 1998]

A digression

I am digressing from ‘inflation targeting’ and am going to talk about a welcome proposal by the Indian Government.

In a bid to obtain a `true picture’ of the effect of price changes on the economy, the Union Finance Ministry has proposed the inclusion of services in the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) which is used to measure point-to-point inflation. In India, the services sector accounted for 54 per cent of the GDP during the previous fiscal year. [The Hindu 2007]

In an earlier post of mine, I had argued for a restructuring of the WPI.

Conclusion

Giving too much significance to the ‘Inflation rate’ without adequate and corresponding developments in food supply, public distribution systems, etc will not help combat the problems of unemployment. Thus the fiscal and monetary authorities must ensure that such areas are targeted during a ‘rise in inflation’.

Increasing interest rates and importing food grains so as to bring down inflation rates will not succeed as the ‘inflation’ is basically caused by distributional inefficiencies.

References

1) Deena Khatkhate, Inflation Targeting, Dec 9 2006, EPW.

2) Kevin D. Hoover, The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics.

””’ 3) Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, The Natural Rate, NAIRU, and Monetary Policy, 1998.

Further Reading

1) The Phillips curve by Bradford DeLong.

2) The NAIRU by Bradford DeLong.

3) History and Theory of the NAIRU: A Critical Review by Espinosa and Russell.

””’ 4) Why inflation still matters, Frontline, Jayati Ghosh, 2006.

Inflation: Is WPI fallible’

The textbooks define Inflation as a situation where too much money chases too few goods i.e. the purchasing power of money has decreased. Actually, only an increase in the general price level for a considerable period of time is called as Inflation in Economics. The 2 major causes are Demand pull factors and Cost push factors. The present reason for inflation to increase is owing to the increase in the global prices of oil which comes under cost push factors.

What is the WPI’
Wholesale price index or WPI is the measure for inflation in India. The government comes out with WPI inflation figures every Friday. The WPI presently consists of 435 items and it is dominated by manufactured goods which make up 63.75% of the index.

Current scenario
In 2005-06 inflation has been experiencing a free fall in spite of escalating crude prices.
Currently the inflation rate is about 4.6% which is clearly undervalued as when compared to the increases in the prices of goods and services. The prices of pulses, transportation has all increased considerably but the WPI does not seem affected much.

Components of WPI
In the computation of WPI, the 3 major variables are Primary articles (weight 22.0), Fuel, power, light and lubricants (weight 14.2) and manufactured products (weight 63.7). Manufactured products have always enjoyed more weight in the calculation of WPI.

Cause of worry
One reason is that, the prices of commodities are increasing due to the increased costs, mainly in transportation. But there has been no corresponding increase in wages. The people who are poor will find it difficult to live as they were living before the price hike.
The second is that, the retailers take advantage of this situation by hoarding up commodities, further fuelling inflation. And the third reason is that, services do not form a part of the WPI though its share in the GDP is 52%. Surprisingly, the WPI inflation rates are just hovering between 4.5% and 5%, which tells us not to worry. History has told us to take inflation rates seriously only if the rate crosses 8%.

Government reaction
The government has decided to reduce customs duties on imports of wheat and sugar in order to increase the domestic supply. The government wants to reduce inflationary pressures by mopping up the excess demand in the economy.

A paradox
Like mentioned in the beginning of this article, the current cause of inflation is an increase in the global oil prices which is a cost push factor. How can the government be so blind in not seeing this’ Instead it has gone to the extent of giving duty free imports to reduce excess demand in the economy, when there has been no excess demand!

Remedy
The immediate step to take will be the reconstruction of the WPI so that it indicates the genuine level of inflation. Like our outdated poverty line, which tells that only about 26% of the Indian population is poor, the current WPI is also outdated.

References
1)http:/indiabudget.nic.in
2)http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1502544.cms
3)http://www.flonnet.com/stories/20060714001704800.htm