Category: Markets

The ‘Micro-Foundations’ of Economic Survey 2009-10

The Economic Survey 2009-10 is different from its predecessors. Of them, it is chapter two of the publication which deserves special attention. The chapter is titled ‘Micro-Foundations of Inclusive Growth.’ This is no new phrase for economists who have witnessed the recent ‘we want microfoundations’ movement in economics. Traditionally, economic survey analysed trends in income, food production, prices, net exports, and so on without telling the readers about their ‘foundations’. For the first time, microfoundations of macroeconomics (a progeny of the failed neoclassical microeconomics enterprise) makes a loud entry into the analysis of the Indian economy.

One of the first signs of this shift is to be seen on the book cover itself. This has been reproduced below, as it is a matter of great concern.

In 2007-08, the cover page indicated various aspects on the Indian Economy. Coupons equilibrium, something which very few people understand gains entry on the cover page. Why’ Is it to show that economics is scientific and can only be understood by a few’ Or does it mean that economic survey is only for those who know such concepts’ Or does it convey that the economy is in safe hands now, run by competent economists’ One can only wonder. The rest of the post will hover around theoretical explanations and policy suggestions provided in chapter 2. Very often, the proposal outlined below are seen as emnating from the ‘political economy school’. It will be argued that this school is only a variant of neoclassical economics, albeit a superior one.

The chapter starts by emphasising the need to look at the foundations of macroeconomic policies, which have been neglected. The author(s) point out that an ‘enabling state’ is what India needs; a state which provides incentives through proper institutions for the individuals. That is, for policy to be effective, we ‘need to take people to be the way they are and then craft incentive-compatible interventions.’ Under the sub heading of ‘development and distribution’, some space is devoted to the question of futures trade. It is of national concern because very often futures trade tends to make the underlying spot prices volatile. However, it is argued that ‘An enabling Government takes view that if we cannot establish a connection between the existence of futures trading and inflation in spot prices, we should allow futures trade.’ The literature contains mixed views on this issue. Perhaps, it is being suggested that since it cannot be proved conclusively, we must go for futures trade. The rationale provided to pursue futures trade is a dangerous trend. For, economics is unlike sciences where laboratory experiments can be carried out. In any case, what is the percentage of people who invest in futures trade’ And what is the percentage of Indian farmers’

Trickle down effect is said to have taken place in India through injection of demand to the poor through increases in budgetary allocations for anti-poverty programmes. The firming up or increase in prices of food items is presented as evidence for income increases of the poor. This piece of evidence is wrought with methodological as well as conceptual difficulties. Hence, it cannot be argued with such certainty that incomes of the poor have risen. For, if the prices of food items have gone up, their real wage or purchasing power must necessarily be reduced. In effect, there might not have been any notable improvement.

Subsidies are considered essential for India. However, price controls are seen as distortionary and also they result in high levels of corruption. Therefore, it is pointed out that subsidies should take the form of ‘coupons’. This achieves two objectives. (1) Prices are left to the market and (2) Individuals have more choice. Both are hallmarks of neoclassical as well as neoliberal thinking. Hence, the need for Unique Identification (UID) system for improving information. It is argued that the state should not tamper with the ‘preferences’ of the subsidy reciever. Because ‘modern behavioural economics reminds us that there are situations where individuals act against their own interests because of lack of self-control or inconsistencies in their inter-temporal preferences, and so some pateranlistic interventions can be good for them.’ This result cannot be directly imported to a macroeconomic setting, owing to differences in objectives and also, the sum of parts may be more or less than the whole (fallacy of composition).

Apart from such proposals, foreign direct investment (FDI) in the textile and clothing sector is favoured as they ‘can help modernize this industry and aid its integration to the global textile market.’ The introduction of powerlooms have rendered many weavers jobless and most of them have become migrant construction workers. When any sector gains more importance than those employed in that sector, it is a sign that the objective of policy makers is plain ‘numerical growth’ and not employment!

The end of the chapter contains a discussion on ‘social norms, culture and development’ which points out that standard economics has not paid much attention to social and cultural factors. And that game theory and behavioural economics ‘is begining to give us some insights into the formation of customs and behaviour.’ It is argued that though such ‘phychological and sociological determinants’ may not effect short-term economic outcomes, they do affect medium-term and long-term outcomes.

In the following manner, this ‘political economy school’ explains economic issues through concepts such as ineffeciency, information asymmetry, bureacracy and corruption, inventives, incomplete contracts, etc. This school of thought should not be confused with Marxian or Sraffian political economy. This chapter is testimony to the fact that economists believe that economics is a science which has testable propositions and that they result in conclusive results. For the authors hail behavioural economics as though it is a new branch of economics which is the ‘saviour’ of economics. More dangerous is some of the causal connections made in the chapter, as they are not based on any logically consistent theory nor are they borne out of experience. The ‘micro-foundations’ of the economic survey definitely needs a rethinking!

On Perfect Information

Four persons A, B, C and D have to share Rs 4 among themselves in units of one rupee. First A proposes a distribution and all of them, including A vote on it. If at least 50% of those voting agree with A, the proposal is accepted. If not, A loses her voting rights and B gets to propose a distribution and all except A vote on it. Once again B’s proposal is accepted if at least 50% of those eligible to vote agree on it. If not, B also loses her voting rights and C gets to propose and so on to D. Assume that each person prefers more money to less and will always vote against a distribution in which she gets zero. What distribution would A propose’

This is a sequential game. It is one in which players make decisions (or select a strategy) following a certain predefined order, and in which at least some players can observe the moves of players who preceded them. If no players observe the moves of previous players, then the game is simultaneous. [Game Theory.net]

This is also one of perfect information. If every player observes the moves of every other player who has gone before her, the game is one of perfect information. [Game Theory.net]

In the sequential game with perfect information, A will propose 3 for himself and 1 to D. This will be accepted by both A and D. D will accept anything more than 0; the reason being that, if all the proposals are rejected and the 4 rupees come in Cs hand, he will take all 4 for himself and since he will will vote for himself, the proposal will get accepted.

In such a game, the one makes the move first will have undue advantage.

On Perfect Competition

This market environment is extensively studied in Economics and is considered as a “Perfect” environment especially on the basis of efficiency.

This write up explains the concept of perfect competition succinctly.

Is such an environment favourable for all ‘ Competitive markets emphasise the importance of having perfect information as a pre requisite for a competitive equilibrium; one which is also Pareto Efficient.

The consumption decisions taken are sequential in nature. The consumer decides to purchase the commodity or service keeping in mind the price; which has been fixed earlier keeping in mind the consumers preferences. The outcome will always favour the producer (In a perfectly competitive market) as he makes the decision of pricing first.

On Pareto Efficiency

An outcome of a game is Pareto efficient if there is no other outcome that makes every player at least as well off and at least one player strictly better off. That is, a Pareto Optimal outcome cannot be improved upon without hurting at least one player. [Game Theory.net]

Conclusion

If the objective in an economy is Pareto Efficiency, then it can be achieved by a competitive market. But, it does not take into consideration equity in distribution. For example, in the game mentioned above, an allocation which leaves A with all the 4 rupees is Pareto Efficient, because in order to make someone better off, A has to be made worse off.

In India, the objective is to reduce Poverty and make growth more wide spread rather than growth being segregated in nature.

The idea that we cannot achieve the ideal state of perfectly competitive market equilibrium might seem pessimistic. Some economists insist upon holding the capitalist system to a standard of competitive equilibrium. Failure to meet this standard constitutes a “market failure” that warrants government intervention.[MacKenzie 2006]

So, is a market environment with perfect information desirable’

Market and the Government

The conflicting ideologies in Economics have more or less revolved around mainly two institutions- Markets and Governments. The Capitalists believe ‘Markets’ to be the panacea for all economic problems, while the Socialists replace the ‘market’ with the ‘government’.

On Markets

Market is the institutional framework within which the act of exchange takes place or the institutional milieu which is the context of the relationship of exchange between the parties. [Kurien 1993] Thus market is an institution which allows for exchange. This exchange is only possible if one of the parties have adequate purchasing power.

Markets exclude people as consumers or buyers of goods and services if they do not have any incomes, or sifficient incomes, which can be transalated into purchasing power. People experience such exclusion if they do not have assets, physical of financial, which can be used (or sold) to yield an income in the form of rent interest or profits. [Nayyar 2002]

So, relying on markets alone will exclude a large chunk of the populace of a nation. Those with relatively higher purchasing power will benefit over those will less purchasing power. And for the former, the world will become a flatter place, as Thomas L Friedman says.

On Government

A government is a body that has the authority to make and the power to enforce rules and laws within a civil, corporate, religious, academic, or other organization or group. In its broadest sense, “to govern” means to administer or supervise, whether over a state, a set group of people, or a collection of assets. [Wikipedia]

In our formal analysis of exchange and producation, the role of social norms ( Smith proposed that market exchange is sustained by the underlying social ‘norms’ resulting frm sympathy, for example, trust in exchange, respect for contracts etc.) are left out and we tend to exaggerate on one hand, the efficiency of an abstract market mechanism based on an invented ‘auctioneer’. On the other, we tend to neglect the roles which the state could play in either reinforcing or destroying these norms which are essential for the functioning of the market economy. [Bhaduri 2002]

On Globalization

Globalization is predominantly a ‘market’ centric process.

Globalization, both then and now, has been associated with an exclusion of countries and of people from its world of economic opportunities. [Nayyar 2002]

Economic globalization challenges the political authority, which the nation state had attained by undermining gradually many of the norms of the traditional civil society.[ Bhaduri 2002]

Globalization has resulted in high growth only in a selected few sectors. [Thomas 2007]

Conclusion

Relying solely on the Government to undertake the functions of the market will lead to social unrest and will result in economic inefficiency. And government regulations are a check on the markets so that a market failure does not occur.

Can markets and governments exist peacefully’ Can market and governnment produced goods and services reach an equilibrium’ Will this result in a state, where those excluded from the market will be included by the government machinery’ Is this sustainable in the long run’

References

1)Deepak Nayyar (edited), Towards Global Governance, Governing Globalization, 2002.
2)Amit Bhaduri, Nationalism and Economic Policy in the Era of Globalization, Governing Globalization, 2002.
3)C. T. Kurien, On Markets in economic Theory and Policy, 1993.