Indian Economic History:Part 1

The decline of Indian manufacturing sector

This post will be one among a series of posts relating to the Indian economic history based on the book by Romesh Chunder Dutt called ‘The Economic History of India.'[Published 1902]

Being cognizant of what happened to the economy during the British rule in India will enable us to understand the causes and reasons of some of the contemporary social and economic issues. A thorough understanding of the British policies in India will bring to the fore the reasons why India, a relatively strong and mighty country earlier, faced famines, debts, etc.

This post tries to examine certain historical incidents brought out by Dutt in relation to the current socio-economic framework.

The Englishmen introduced western education, built a strong and efficacious administration, framed wise laws and also established courts of justice.

India encountered famines during the years 1877, 1878, 1889, 1892, 1897 and 1900 which carried off more than 15 millions of people.’
Though British introduced such efficient institutions, India lost millions of lives in the famines. Famines further aggravate poverty and also undermine the confidence on the Government.

Sources of wealth have been narrowed under British rule.’
Though they provided India with efficient enterprises, they thoroughly looted India of all its wealth. The British rule proved to be a lacuna in the growth of India which further accelerated and aggravated problems like high external debts, droughts even after Indian independence.

India was a great manufacturing as well as an agricultural country in the 16th century.’ ‘Indian loom supplied the markets of Asia and Europe.’
The manufacturing sector is increasingly dependent on the agricultural sector for raw materials. The demand for manufactured goods predominantly comes from the primary sector. Most of the populace was engaged in agricultural activities, and due to this they enjoyed a considerable ‘Demand capacity’, which provided them with the sufficient ‘purchasing power’ to consume manufactured products. This sort of a healthy relation between the 2 sectors is sustainable in the long run, rather than an economy which depends heavily on a single sector. Of late, the rhetoric has been to increase GDP growth rates, without mentioning the importance of contributions from Agriculture to these growth rates.

East India Company and the British parliament, followed selfish commercial policy which discouraged Indian manufacturers.’ ‘An excise duty was imposed on Indian cotton fabrics which disabled then to compete with Japan and China.’
The British ruined the manufacturing sector by imposing heavy duties on its exports thus making it costly in the global market. Owing to the fact that India had abundant natural resources, Agriculture could not be strangled.

British made Indian people grow raw produce only.’
This enabled them to purchase cheap raw materials and had it processed in England which was later sold for exorbitant rates in India and elsewhere.

Millions of Indian artisans lost their earnings.‘ ‘The invention of the power loom in Europe completed the decline of the Indian industries.’

Thus the Indian manufacturing sector was almost reduced to nothing by the end of 1947.

Advances in Economic History

A new branch of Economics, namely ‘Cliometrics’ which refers to the systematic use of economic theory and econometrics techniques to study economic history has helped economic historians in increasing the accuracy of their findings.

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 1993 jointly to Professor Robert W. Fogel, University of Chicago, USA, and Professor Douglass C. North, Washington University, St. Louis, USA, “for having renewed research in economic history by applying economic theory and quantiative methods in order to explain economic and institutional change.” [Nobelprize.org]

Further Links

1) The Cliometric society
2) Cliometrica (Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History)

The Real Economy of India

Economy: Main Constituents

Agriculture sector or otherwise known as the ‘primary sector’ comprises agriculture and allied activities like crop production, horticulture, plantation crops, farm mechanization, land development and reclamation, digging of wells, tube wells and irrigation projects, forestry, construction of cold storages and warehouses, processing of agri-products, finance to agri-input dealers, allied activities like dairy, fisheries, poultry, sheep-goat, piggery and rearing of silk worms.

Industrial sector or the Secondary sector consists mainly of mining and quarrying; manufacturing and electricity; gas and supply.

The services sector or the tertiary sector includes trade, hotels, restaurants, transport storage and communication; financing, insurance, real estate and business services; community, social and personal services and construction.

Gross Domestic Product(GDP)

According to the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), the Indian economy recorded a real GDP growth of 8.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2005-06.

When an economy grows at, say 5 %, it implies that the average growth of the 3 sectors within the economy, namely agriculture, industrial and services are growing at an average rate of 5%.

The data by CSO says that, the agricultural growth in real terms during the second quarter (July-September) of 2005-06, is 2.0; industrial sector 7.6 and tertiary sector 9.8.

The slow growth of the primary sector has been mainly attributed to the weak monsoons.

Business Expectation: A digression

Business expectation surveys suggest that the current phase of industrial activity is likely to continue in the near future. According to the Reserve Bank’s latest Industrial Outlook Survey, the Business Expectations Index for January-March 2006 quarter increased by 2.4 per cent over the previous quarter. Survey results indicate that employment, selling prices, imports and profit margins are expected to improve during the quarter January-March 2006 vis-‘-vis October-December 2005.

What the ‘growth’ comprises

The area under kharif crops was 1.2 per cent higher than a year ago, led by increased area under rice, maize, pulses and sugarcane. As regards rabi crops, the area coverage as on January 2, 2006 was 1.5 per cent higher than a year ago on account of increased coverage in respect of major crops such as wheat and rapeseed.

The mining and electricity sectors, on the other hand, recorded a deceleration. The sharp slowdown in the mining sector may be attributable in part to a decline in production of crude oil caused by the break-out of fire in the Mumbai-High oil field in July 2005 and the adverse impact of heavy rainfall on coal mining activities. Lower growth in the electricity sector is attributable to shortage of coal and gas.

Robust growth in the cellular subscriber base broadband connections supported the strong growth in the communication sector.

Sustained growth in bank deposits and non-food credit as well as increased exports of information technology enabled services boosted the sub-sector ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’.

These are some of the reasons mentioned by the RBI for the growth in real GDP.

Growth projections

Agencies like ADB, CII, CRISIL, NCAER, IMF and RBI have projected the Real Gross Domestic Product for India during 2005-06 to be over and around 7.0. This reflects a bright prospect for the people of India. Is it so’

Current Scene


Link: The Hindu

Conclusions

The current GDP rate is exuberating and so are the projections. All the hype is on the growth rate. The politicians’ rhetoric is that India is growing as its GDP is rising. The agricultural sector is weak, structurally. More reason to be worried is because of the fact that more than 50% of the Indian populace are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. The number of farmer suicides in Vidarbha and even in highly literate states like Kerala, speaks of discontentment. Relying only on the GDP and expecting the ‘trickle down effects’ to comply is nonsensical. Even if the high rates of GDP brought forth positive externalities, the time lag required for ‘these benefits’ to reach the masses would be large.

It is a commendable and laudable fact that India is improving it’s IT related exports. IT sector definitely seems resplendent.

Even if ‘trickle down effects’ ensued, all the benefits have gone to the middle class sector. More people are becoming better off with this sector.

The main concern is that of sustaining the realised growth of services and improving upon the primary and secondary sectors. The issue of ‘sustainable development’ should be our main concern. Lop sided development cannot be sustainable in the long run. Therefore, resting on a weak agricultural base is dangerous.

References

1) RBI: Third Quarter Review 2005-06, The Real Economy .